As I was listening to Washington Post Radio’s analysis of Zarqawi’s death and its impact during the drive to work, one statement made on the radio by an analyst struck me: It’s a good PR victory for the U.S. This got me thinking. What does his demise really mean?

It’s obvious that I do not have the information necessary to make a thorough and proper analysis, since a lot of information is classified. We are allowed to know only what the government tells us due to security and intelligence purposes. All I can do is base my ideas and thoughts on what is available to me, so here goes.

Per BBC’s Profile on him, he was a Jordanian petty thief turned leader of a Tawhid and Jihad insurgent group that merged with al-Qaeda in 2004. In fact his group in Iraq has now been renamed as al-Qaeda. He and his group have been attributed to some of the atrocious acts against the Shia Muslims (he is Sunni). It is also reported that he was starting to loose a lot of support due to the bloody attacks. He was killed in an air strike carried out by U.S. forces. So the question that arises is, NOW WHAT? What happens next?

I believe (and it is only logical) that he has groomed his heir or heirs to take over once he is gone (as this is a quality of a leader, good or bad). His death is definitely a major blow to the confidence level of his followers. This may just trigger them to carry out more attacks in the name of revenge (which I hope does not happen, but what is the likelihood of that?). But if his support and popularity was dropping, why did the attacks still continue? A lot of the violence in Iraq comes from former Baathists (Saddam’s political group), Sunni Nationalists and Shia militias (add to it the foreign fighters) and this becomes a whole different ballgame.

Zarqawi’s death will probably thwart some operations but not all. The next logical and humanitarian step would be on a political level for the Iraqi government. They need to try to bring in all the factions and reach a compromise that would put an end to the death and the violence that is plaguing the Iraqi citizens. The government should be representative of all the Iraqi’s and the warring factions should realize that hurting their own will not solve any issues.

I remember reading somewhere once that if Osama bin Laden was killed, thousands more would emerge. I think this is the case here as well. The proper path to eradicate this problem is education. Education erases ignorance, and will only help harbor tolerance. I hope this is just not a PR victory for the US but actually turns into a humanitarian victory for the suffering Iraqis!


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